Woofun AI reports that the fundamental logic governing corporate Bitcoin treasuries has inverted, triggering a severe trust crisis as the correlation between asset accumulation and stock performance collapses. Over the past two years, any public company increasing its Bitcoin holdings saw its treasury stock rise, but this mechanism has now fractured. Strategy, the industry pioneer, saw its Bitcoin yield decline steadily to 11.8% from 13% just a month ago, while Metaplanet faces a valuation where its enterprise value is lower than the value of its crypto assets. On June 22, Strategy sold $335.5 million worth of common stock, retaining approximately $300 million in cash to boost reserves to $1.4 billion, utilizing only the remainder to purchase 520 Bitcoin. This move prioritizes liquidity for priority stock dividends over aggressive asset acquisition, marking a stark departure from previous accumulation strategies.

The financial mechanics behind this shift reveal a deepening structural problem within the sector. Strategy's STRC perpetual preferred stocks recently hit record lows, severely impacting the company's core funding source. Since the beginning of the year, the total float has increased to approximately 388.6 million shares after full dilution. The market performance this week reflects the broader challenges facing the entire Bitcoin treasury sector, where investors no longer react positively to surface-level news of large-scale purchases. Instead, market participants now meticulously examine financing transactions, weighing equity dilution, preferred stock dividends, debt interest, and retained cash. The critical question has shifted from whether a company is buying Bitcoin to whether the deal truly increases shareholders' Bitcoin holdings or merely expands the company's total holdings while diluting existing interests.

The core of the sector's first development phase was "asset accumulation," but the current phase focuses on calculating ownership rights after deducting preferential repayment costs. A key indicator of this transition is the contraction of the modified net asset value (mNAV), calculated by dividing the total market cap of treasury companies by the total value of their Bitcoin holdings. When a company's market cap exceeds its Bitcoin holdings, it can issue new shares at a premium to purchase more Bitcoin, increasing the amount per share for existing shareholders.

However, once this premium disappears, the process of issuing shares to buy Bitcoin transfers value to new investors, harming existing shareholders. Metaplanet, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in Asia, exemplifies this distress. It holds 40,177 Bitcoin, worth approximately $2.4 billion, yet its enterprise value is lower than this figure, resulting in an mNAV of only 0.9 times.

Metaplanet's stock price has fallen by about 47% so far this year, and its quarterly Bitcoin yield has turned negative at -0.40%. CEO Simon Gerovich addressed this situation directly, stating that as long as the mNAV breaks below 1.0 times, the company will seriously consider buying back its own stock. Current corporate policy stipulates that no new common stocks will be issued at this valuation level. The company accumulated a large amount of Bitcoin when prices were high, resulting in an accounting loss of about $1.6 billion at present. The balance sheet is currently experiencing a cycle of capital constraints where shareholders are unwilling to pay a valuation premium, and financing models that could enhance shareholders' equity have come to a halt. As long as the valuation remains discounted, companies cannot increase their Bitcoin holdings, forcing management to reduce the float to preserve the value of Bitcoin per share.

Strategy still leads in terms of scale, holding 847,363 Bitcoin as of June 21, which accounts for over 60% of all Bitcoin held by publicly listed companies worldwide.

However, before ordinary shareholders can receive any asset distribution, the company has preferred stocks worth over $13.5 billion that have priority in repayment. This year, the company purchased approximately 174,300 Bitcoin, with Bitwise estimating that 55% of the funds came from the issuance of STRC preferred stocks. As this financing channel faces pressure, the company chooses to dilute the equity of ordinary shareholders to ensure the payment of preferred stock dividends. Now, all legitimate Bitcoin treasury companies use the amount of Bitcoin per share after full dilution as a key performance metric. Objectively speaking, the growth in the total amount of Bitcoin on companies' books and the increase in the amount held by individual shareholders are no longer synchronized.

In the European market, French listed company Capital B (formerly The Blockchain Group) received shareholder approval on June 17 to raise up to €5 billion in capital and issue credit instruments worth up to €100 billion, with the total approved financing amount equivalent to approximately $120 billion. Yet, what supports such a large-scale financing is merely its current holdings of 3,139 Bitcoin, worth about $200 million. All of the company's operations are aimed at "increasing the amount of Bitcoin per share after full dilution," and it has disclosed its plan to reach 15,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2027, with a long-term goal of holding 1% of the world's total Bitcoin supply. Swedish company BTC AB adopts a similar operational approach on a smaller scale and at a faster pace. The company has launched a share offering, planning to issue up to 195,078 Class A preferred stocks at $120 per share, aiming to raise $23.4 million (approximately $2.5 million). These preferred stocks pay a fixed annual dividend of 10%, settled monthly, while the company holds only about 171 Bitcoin as underlying assets. The subscription period will close on June 30, and so far, the intended subscription amount covers 27% of the total issuance volume.

Comparing these two European companies reveals that their requests to investors are exactly the same: they want the market to accept increasingly complex capital instruments, hoping that the value of the Bitcoin purchased later can cover all the costs associated with equity dilution, preferred stock dividends, and redemption clauses. The focus of market discussions has shifted from "which company holds the most Bitcoin" to "who will bear the financing costs and whether the financing terms are reasonable." Currently, the four leading companies in this sector are in very different situations. A year ago, the market would give positive valuation responses to all companies that increased their Bitcoin holdings. Now, investors set prices separately based on each company's financing terms. Even after accounting for preferred stocks and debt, Strategy still has a valuation premium, but ordinary shareholders' actual Bitcoin holdings per share have decreased. Metaplanet's market cap is far below the value of its Bitcoin holdings. The two European companies have not yet finalized their financing costs but are seeking substantial financial support from the market.

A major factor behind this shift in market logic is the popularity of Bitcoin spot ETFs. ETFs provide investors with a clean, low-cost, and direct way to hold Bitcoin. In the U.S., billions of dollars can flow out of spot ETFs within just six weeks. Investors can trade Bitcoin with just one click, forcing treasury companies, which rely on leverage and equity dilution, to provide reasonable reasons for holding Bitcoin. Previously, such treasury stocks had scarcity value and were the mainstream way for the secondary market to indirectly invest in Bitcoin. But now that scarcity has disappeared, companies must rely on additional advantages such as leverage-driven returns, stable dividends, and efficient capital market operations to prove their value. If a company can only offer Bitcoin exposure accompanied by dilution costs, its stock price will remain in a discounted range in the long term.

However, these changes do not necessarily mean bad news for Bitcoin. Investors' willingness to punish reckless financing behavior will push the entire sector to optimize capital allocation, improve information disclosure, and adopt a more accurate method of calculating assets per share. Companies that can continuously issue equity within a premium valuation range and simultaneously increase the amount of Bitcoin per share will maintain their market reputation and continue to accumulate Bitcoin. Companies with weaker credentials will face revaluation of their valuations and may even lose access to new financing channels. The real risk in this sector lies in the breakdown of the financing loop: once treasury companies cannot issue stocks at a price higher than their asset value, they lose the means to continue purchasing Bitcoin. At the same time, they must continue to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest, leaving them with very limited options—such as continuing to dilute shareholders despite the discount, lending Bitcoin to earn interest, or selling their crypto assets outright. Strategy is exploring Bitcoin lending services, a transformation that would turn its original Bitcoin-holding company into a credit business, introducing entirely new types of risks. Once the valuation premium disappears, what was once a Bitcoin accumulation machine will become a balance sheet problem burdened by ongoing dividend liabilities. The winners of the first phase of this sector stood out by accumulating Bitcoin faster and in larger quantities than their competitors. In the next phase, companies that can sustain themselves will need to prove that after each round of financing, ordinary shareholders' Bitcoin holdings increase rather than decrease. The market is finally starting to calculate this accurately.