Woofun AI reports that independent analyst Axel Adler Jr. argues it is premature to declare a Bitcoin trend reversal, despite recent positive on-chain signals and modest spot ETF inflows.

Short-term holders, defined as wallets holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days, are exhibiting slightly more buying pressure than selling pressure. This metric is often viewed as a positive indicator because these holders are typically more reactive to price movements.

However, Adler emphasizes that this single metric is insufficient to confirm a sustained recovery.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a minor net inflow last week, breaking an eight-week streak of consistent outflows. While this shift has generated some optimism, Adler notes that the overall flow picture for the past month remains deeply negative. The cumulative outflows over the previous two months still overshadow the recent positive movement.

Major macroeconomic indicators are scheduled for release this week, including U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary. These events have historically triggered significant volatility in risk assets like Bitcoin. Any negative surprise could reverse the recent positive momentum.

Woofun AI data shows that the broader ETF flow trend remains bearish, with the monthly aggregate still showing net outflows. This suggests that institutional sentiment has not yet turned decisively bullish. Adler points out that a single week of data does not constitute a trend, and sustained inflows over several weeks would be needed to signal a genuine shift.

For retail and institutional investors alike, the key takeaway is patience. The market remains in a wait-and-see mode, with participants closely watching macroeconomic catalysts and ETF flow data for confirmation of a longer-term recovery. A holistic view of the market provides a more reliable picture than any one indicator alone. The next few weeks will be critical in determining whether the recent positive signals are the beginning of a new uptrend or merely a temporary reprieve.