Woofun AI reports that Bitcoin has stabilized near $65,150, reflecting a 1.3% gain over the past 24 hours as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have temporarily abated. This price action follows a second consecutive day where both nations refrained from launching retaliatory strikes, creating a brief window of market calm. Iran has signaled its intent to continue withholding counterattacks provided the United States maintains its restraint, a diplomatic pause that has directly influenced asset pricing dynamics.

The immediate catalyst for this stabilization is the decline in energy markets, specifically West Texas Intermediate crude, which fell approximately 5% as the threat of immediate conflict receded. This drop provides some relief from the inflationary pressures that had been exacerbated by the geopolitical standoff, although prices remain elevated after topping $100 a barrel last week. The structural disruption in global shipping remains a critical variable; Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded only 53 vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz in the week ending July 20, a sharp 66% decline from the 157 transits observed the previous week.

Tanker and gas carrier crossings, which are essential for moving Gulf crude and liquefied natural gas, plummeted to 30 from 90. Given that roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through this waterway, the current traffic levels indicate that operators are only moving cargo in short windows when risk is deemed acceptable. A renewed strike or an attack on energy infrastructure could rapidly push prices back above $100, lifting yields and reversing the conditions that allowed Bitcoin to recover the $65,000 level.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above key support levels has been instrumental in preserving the recovery from the June low. The asset remained above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement near $63,700 and the 50-day simple moving average around $63,300. These levels function as self-reinforcing barriers because a significant portion of traders act upon them, absorbing the latest pullback. The cluster of support around these figures prevented a deeper decline and established a foundation for the current rebound, demonstrating that buyer interest remains active at these specific price points.

Looking ahead, the immediate hurdle for Bitcoin is the July 27 high near $65,680. A move above this level would extend the current rebound, but the more meaningful resistance sits at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement around $67,370. A daily close above $67,370 would open room towards the 100-day SMA near $69,500. This average is still falling, which makes it the critical test of whether Bitcoin is changing its medium-term structure or merely bouncing within a broader downtrend. Beyond that, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near $70,300 and the 200-day SMA around $72,000 form the next significant resistance area. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood near 54, reflecting mildly positive momentum without reaching an overbought reading, suggesting there is still room for price appreciation, although momentum alone does not confirm a breakout.

The macroeconomic backdrop is dominated by the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for July 28 and July 29, with its statement and press conference set for Wednesday. Economists broadly expect the benchmark rate to stay at 3.5% to 3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, following the June meeting.

However, the tail risk lies in the potential for a rate hike; nearly half of policymakers indicated at the June meeting that they would support a rate hike later this year, and markets now assign roughly a one-in-three probability to an increase this week. Nine of 18 participants projected at least one hike before year-end, against eight for no change and one for a cut, with the median year-end rate rising to 3.8% from 3.4%. Chair Kevin Warsh has moved the Fed away from explicit forward guidance and declined to submit his own projections in June, removing the usual signal ahead of the decision.

There is also no dot plot at this meeting. For Bitcoin, the risk is uneven; a hold is largely priced in, but a hike or language keeping September live would lift yields into a market that has not positioned for it. Across the 2022 to 2023 tightening cycle, Bitcoin’s sharpest declines tracked surprise more closely than the hikes themselves. The worst decline followed expectations moving from 50 to 75 basis points in the week before the June 2022 decision, and expectations for this meeting have moved on a similar timescale, with the probability of a hike roughly doubling over eleven days in mid-July.

Simultaneously, the Bank of Japan meets on July 30 and July 31, two days after the Fed, introducing another layer of complexity. Near-zero Japanese rates have made the yen the cheapest major currency to borrow, funding leveraged positions across global markets for two decades. As the Bank of Japan raises rates, that funding becomes more expensive, prompting the closure of those positions. A hawkish message could strengthen the yen and make yen-funded investments less attractive, leading investors to sell liquid assets across several markets.

BTC does not need to be purchased directly with borrowed yen to feel the effect; crypto trades continuously and can become an early source of liquidity when leveraged portfolios are being reduced. Balanced guidance alongside no change would keep that pressure contained, but a surprise increase or a clear signal that the next hike is approaching could move the yen sharply and raise crypto volatility. A hawkish Fed followed by a hawkish BOJ would tighten conditions from both directions inside three days.

Market correlation with technology equities adds another dimension to this week’s volatility. Bitcoin has traded as a higher-beta version of the Nasdaq through most of this cycle, following the same direction with larger swings. The same institutions hold both assets, and a technology drawdown that shrinks risk budgets usually reaches crypto positions quickly. Microsoft reports on July 29, alongside Meta, while Amazon and Apple follow on July 30. Strong cloud growth, advertising demand, or guidance on artificial-intelligence returns could support equities and help BTC hold its recovery. Conversely, weak forecasts or concern over excessive AI spending could produce the opposite reaction. The timing may make individual causes difficult to separate, as Microsoft and Meta report on the Fed day, while Amazon and Apple release results shortly before the BOJ decision.

Woofun AI data shows that stablecoin flows are shifting, with CryptoQuant reporting that stablecoins associated with US investors are flowing back to exchanges. Stablecoins sitting on a venue can be spent immediately, so rising inflows expand the pool of money positioned to buy without confirming that any buying has happened. CryptoQuant’s official metric guide notes that inflows to spot exchanges may represent potential buying pressure. Deposits sent to derivatives venues can instead support either long or short positions and may increase volatility. Rising spot volume alongside a daily close through resistance would show that capital is being deployed, while balances building while price stalls beneath resistance would indicate the same money is waiting.

The scenario for Bitcoin’s next move depends on several converging factors. The rebound would gain credibility if the geopolitical pause holds, Hormuz traffic recovers enough to bring crude down further, and the Fed avoids signalling a September move. Strong technology earnings and stablecoin-backed spot buying would add support. On the chart, the first confirmation of a sustained recovery is a daily close above $67,370, with the 100-day SMA near $69,500 carrying more weight. The setup weakens if Bitcoin loses the support cluster it defended last week, which would expose the recent trading area around $62,000, followed by the June low near $57,800. Bitcoin reclaimed $65,000 on a pause in hostilities that could reverse within a day.

This week will determine whether the current stability is sufficient to carry price through resistance, or whether a hawkish central bank and a blocked shipping lane return control to sellers. The interplay between geopolitical risk, monetary policy, and market sentiment will define the trajectory for Bitcoin in the coming days.