Woofun AI reports that Fidelity Digital Assets has identified a projected Bitcoin bottom for October 2026, driven by historic lows in on-chain valuation metrics and miner efficiency.

The Yardstick indicator, which evaluates the relationship between market capitalization and processing rate via a normalized Z-score relative to energy consumption, shows the asset trading at a significant discount to miner costs. This index remained at discounted levels for 76 out of the past 92 days analyzed. Despite financial pressure on mining companies from lower prices, the network’s computing capacity dropped only 22% from its peak, reflecting the maturation of the mining industry and stronger operational efficiency management.

Cyclical timing analysis reveals that previous accumulation phases maintained undervaluation ranges for an average of 300 days, whereas the current bear market has lasted 203 days. Price swings in this cycle exhibit lower historical volatility than in prior stages. Based on these projections, October 2026 emerges as a key timeframe for analysts focused on cyclical behavior, with several sentiment indicators remaining close to capitulation zones.

Woofun AI data shows that holder dynamics are shifting, as the realized capital metric between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) registered a level of 3.9 points. Historically, readings above the 4.0 threshold preceded definitive bottoms in previous market cycles. Data presented by the Alphractal portal suggests capital concentration is moving toward investors with long-term conviction horizons, while short-term speculative participation remains reduced. Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, notes that this structure places the market in an advanced accumulation phase.

Price action reflects this consolidation, with Bitcoin pulling back 5.5% from its five-week high of $67,000 reached on July 21. During Tuesday’s session, the price dipped slightly below the $63,000 mark and attempted to break through the $64,000 resistance on three separate occasions over a 12-hour span, failing to consolidate a breakout. Reports from Swissblock detail that the market’s reconstruction phase encountered obstacles in regaining buying momentum.

Although the price structure shows signs of stabilization, buying volume has not expanded sufficiently to sustain an upward trend. Future focus will remain on the evolution of hash rate and variations in operational costs across the mining sector. This marks a critical juncture where technical resistance meets fundamental accumulation signals.