Bitcoin traded at $63,030 on June 18, declining approximately 2% after volatility swung prices from an intraday high of $64,731 to a low of $62,263. This price action occurred as oil prices fell and maritime traffic resumed through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in weeks. By June 19, the asset continued its weak performance, approaching $62,450 as of press time. The market reaction followed the signing of the US-Iran Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding by President Donald Trump, which was transmitted to Congress on June 18. This agreement commits Iran to ensuring safe commercial passage through the Strait for 60 days, while the US agrees to fully end its naval blockade on Iranian ports within 30 days.

Brent crude touched its lowest level since before the conflict began on Feb. 28, settling near $79.85, while WTI settled at $76.60. The Strait handles roughly 20% of global oil supply, and for the first time since the conflict began, this critical supply lane was open. Data compiled by Woofun AI indicates that lower oil prices reduce the risk of another energy-driven inflation impulse. In a standard macro sequence, this eases inflation expectations, puts downward pressure on yields, and makes risk assets with long duration more attractive to rate-sensitive positioning.

However, the immediate market response diverged from this theoretical disinflationary benefit.

Reports noted that 9 of 18 Fed policymakers now expect at least one rate hike this year, up from 0 in March, with 6 of those 9 projecting more than one 25-basis-point increase. The FOMC cited supply shocks, including energy, which means the Fed is not yet treating the oil drop as a solved problem. The US dollar index hit a one-year high of 100.80 after the Fed's statement, with Fed funds futures pricing a 68% chance of a rate hike by September. Lower oil today does not erase the inflation and rate-risk damage already embedded in the Fed's policy path.

Policymakers marked inflation higher, nearly half see a hike coming, and the dollar is at a one-year high. Cheaper energy helps at the margin while the Fed's own forecasts keep the rate-hike threat alive, with policymakers signaling hikes if inflation stays above target. Woofun AI notes that this dynamic feeds directly into how Bitcoin trades the Hormuz channel from here. If the MOU holds and Brent keeps falling toward the mid-$70s, the disinflationary impulse becomes harder for the Fed to ignore. The war-risk premium that has weighed on risk assets since late February would genuinely deflate.

Hike odds recede, the dollar softens from its one-year high, and Bitcoin can reclaim the $65,000-$68,000 range as traders reprice the rate path rather than the war risk. Conversely, if Fed hike odds keep climbing and the dollar extends its breakout above 100.80, Bitcoin faces pressure that oil relief cannot offset. A clean break below $62,000 on persistent dollar strength and rising rate expectations would put the $60,000 area back in view, because the macro traders driving that move would be responding to the Fed's rate path. June 18 confirmed the geopolitical news improved, oil fell, ships moved, and BTC still broke lower.

The asset is pricing dollar strength, rate expectations, and whether cheato stop the Fed from validating the new hike dots. Woofun AI analysis suggests that until that sequence completes, Bitcoin can receive good geopolitical news and still close the day lower. The divergence between the easing geopolitical tension and the tightening monetary policy stance highlights the current dominance of macroeconomic factors over supply-side relief in determining asset valuations.