Woofun AI reports that on July 1st, BTC price dipped to $57,800, marking a fresh low since October 2024 and representing a correction exceeding 50% from its all-time high near $126,000.

Concurrently, ETH hovered around $1,600, while SOL recorded ten consecutive daily declines on its monthly chart. The market's VIX index stood at 17, signaling extreme fear, while the Nasdaq fluctuated near $26,200 and the S&P 500 traded close to $7,500. This weakness stems primarily from substantial net outflows in spot ETFs and the collapse of rate cut expectations. From mid-May through June 2026, Bitcoin spot ETFs endured a wave of capital flight; since May 1st, only nine days saw net inflows, typically under $140 million daily, whereas four days witnessed outflows surpassing $600 million. Institutions and retail investors alike reduced holdings via ETFs, intensifying selling pressure in the spot market.

Furthermore, Federal Reserve rate cut hopes failed to materialize. Kalshi data indicates a 77.8% probability the Fed will remain unchanged this year, with merely a 19.6% chance of a single 25 basis point cut. This high real yield environment has boosted the appeal of cash and bonds, suppressing risk-on sentiment.

Regarding the potential bottom, Rafael, co-founder of Glassnode, argues that current institutional demand has not effectively absorbed new supply. Over the past month, ETFs experienced a net outflow of 71,600 BTC, while digital asset custodian firms added 7,500 BTC, resulting in a total net outflow of 77,100 BTC. Based on the realized price of approximately $54,000 and the cycle value date destruction price near $46,200, he forecasts the cycle bottom will land between $46,000 and $54,000. In contrast, BIT posits that the bear market has entered its final phase. Utilizing Elliott Wave theory, they estimate the C-wave decline could reach roughly $50,000, with the lowest point likely occurring between June 11 and July 19, 2026, coinciding with the FIFA World Cup. Their projection places the core bottom area between $50,000 and $55,000.

A report by Wintermute suggests the market is in the later stages of a bear market, yet the true bottom may not have arrived. Spot ETFs have recently seen net outflows totaling around $1.8 billion, and liquidity indicators show no improvement. Seasonal factors imply the bottom is more probable between September and October. JackYi, founder of Liquid Capital, contends that July and August could represent the final bottom and the optimal buying window. Calculating from the peak of $126,000, a 60% drop would lower the price to $51,000, while a 66% decline would result in $43,000.

Meanwhile, Jiang Zhuoer, CEO of Lebit Mining Pool, predicts that based on the MSTR mNAV indicator and a four-year cycle model, this bear market will bottom out between October and December this year, with prices likely ranging between $42,000 and $44,000.

Woofun AI data shows that Polymarket predictions reflect significant downside risk, with a 79% chance BTC will break below $55,000 this year. There is a 65% probability it will fall under $50,000, and a 30% chance it could drop below $40,000. These divergent timelines and price targets highlight the uncertainty surrounding the immediate recovery. While some analysts see the floor forming in the coming weeks, others anticipate a prolonged descent into late autumn. The consensus remains that the current price action does not yet signal a definitive reversal, leaving investors to navigate a landscape defined by persistent outflows and macroeconomic headwinds. This marks a period where patience is required as the market digests the full impact of institutional selling and monetary policy stagnation.