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Woofun AI reports that major cryptocurrency exchanges are executing a strategic pivot away from reliance on trading volumes, with Coinbase, Gemini, and Bullish expanding into stablecoins, prediction markets, and loyalty programs to mitigate earnings volatility.
At Coinbase, the disparity between trading and non-trading revenue contracted sharply to approximately $44 million, down from roughly $132 million a year earlier. This financial restructuring coincides with a 44% year-over-year surge in average USDC holdings during the third quarter, reaching $20 billion. The expansion into stablecoins and prediction markets underscores a deliberate effort to engineer income streams that are insulated from cyclical market fluctuations.
Woofun AI data shows Gemini has tripled its prediction-market maker metrics since early this year while deploying rebate and rewards programs to stimulate engagement. Despite these initiatives, second-quarter trading volume and revenue declined by 66% and 38% respectively from a year earlier, totaling $3.8 billion. These figures highlight the persistent headwinds facing exchanges as both retail and institutional trading activity remains subdued.
Bullish is similarly leveraging a rewards program to drive activity, though results remain mixed. Its adjusted trading revenue fell 21% quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter to $29.9 million, yet it remained up 24% from a year earlier. This divergence illustrates the uneven recovery trajectory across the sector,
The industry's move beyond trading is fundamentally about building resilient business models through reserve interest and transaction fees derived from stablecoins. Prediction markets and rewards programs further enhance network effects, reducing dependence on macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments. As the revenue gap narrows, these non-trading services are proving essential for stabilizing earnings amidst ongoing volume pressure.