The current Bitcoin market exhibits a striking anomaly: asset prices have rebounded strongly from recent lows, approaching the key level of $71,000, yet transaction activity at the blockchain level is nearly stagnant. This disconnect between prices and network activity breaks the traditional pattern where rising prices are always accompanied by congestion and soaring fees.

At the macro level, inflationary expectations stemming from slower oil transport and the Fed’s policy direction remain underlying factors. However, a deeper issue is that on-chain data shows extremely low transaction costs and no signs of excessive congestion, directly challenging the notion that congestion is the sole indicator of demand.